{"id":55,"date":"2023-12-07T04:28:43","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T04:28:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/egoanalytics.me\/?page_id=55"},"modified":"2026-04-05T18:44:46","modified_gmt":"2026-04-05T18:44:46","slug":"gambling-performances-homepage","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/egoanalytics.me\/index.php\/gambling-performances-homepage\/","title":{"rendered":"Gambling Performances Homepage"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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\n2020 Actual<\/a>\n2020 Favorites<\/a>\n2021 Actual<\/a>\n2021 Favorites<\/a>\n2022 Actual<\/a>\n2022 Favorites<\/a>\n2023 Actual<\/a>\n2023 Favorites<\/a>\n2024 Actual<\/a>\n2024 Favorites<\/a>\n2025 Actual<\/a>\n2025 Favorites<\/a>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
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I just want to reiterate that turning a profit via gambling is not the primary goal of this project. I am estimating what the expectations are if every organization followed the cyclical nature of the league. I am not predicting what will happen on the field. I couldn’t expect to be right about who actually wins which game, since I have no influence over what actually happens on the field. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Upsets can generate a significant amount of volatility. Through the first 3 weeks of the 2024 season, underdogs of 5.5 or more points were 10-4, including 5-0 in Week 3 alone. In that same time period, NFL betting public (51%+ of the bets) was 17-30-1 against the spread (betting using point spread), which is the second-worst performance through that time span in the past 20 years. If one were to follow those bets, to use $10 as a unit, and to bet 1 unit on each bet, he or she would be down -$145.30 (-30%). While the league had certainly undergone a period of significant instability from 2021 to 2023, I would be very suspicious of anybody who is confident about what will happen in any individual NFL game regardless.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead of being concerned about the actual result of the game, I am just as, if not more, interested in who “should” have won the game. Using the spreads provided by the sportsbooks as a proxy for who “should” have won each game, I created a version of the seasons where every game resulted in the Favorite winning. These Favorite Only versions, along with the Actual versions for each season can be found above. The difference between these two versions provides an opportunity to assess how “lucky” the model is. The charts below show this luck through the first 5 seasons. More about Upset Luck can be found here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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