I just want to reiterate that turning a profit via gambling is not the goal of this project. I am estimating what the expectations are if every organization followed the cyclical nature of the league. I am not predicting what will happen on the field. Through the first 3 weeks of the 2024 season, underdogs of 5.5 or more points were 10-4, including 5-0 in Week 3 alone. In that same time period, NFL betting public (51%+ of the bets) was 17-30-1 against the spread (betting using point spread), which is the second worst performance through that time span in the past 20 years. If one were to follow those bets, to use $10 as a unit, and to bet 1 unit on each bet, he or she would be down $145.30 (-30%). While the league had certainly undergone a period of instability from 2021 to 2023, I would be very suspicious of anybody who is confident about what will happen in any individual NFL game regardless.
“If this is based on data, why doesn’t this win 100% of its bets?”
Deviation from expectation can actually be more useful
Example: firing Head Coaches when they underperform
Other potential internal reasons for inaccuracy
Misreading prior data, leading to an incorrect prediction
Could simply be that model could be adjusted/improved
Other potential external reasons for inaccuracy
Weather, refs, random bounces, injuries (especially QBs)
Order of opponents, schedule timing, placement of byes