| ORG Rnk | Team (Seed) | Wins | ORG | Coach | GM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rams (5) | 12 | 91 | 85 | 96 |
| 2 | Broncos (1) | 14 | 90 | 95 | 85 |
| 3 | Bills (6) | 12 | 90 | 88 | 92 |
| 4 | Patriots (2) | 14 | 88 | 93 | 83 |
| 5 | Seahawks (2) | 14 | 88 | 96 | 80 |
| 6 | Bears (2) | 11 | 87 | 90 | 85 |
| 7 | Chargers (7) | 11 | 87 | 89 | 86 |
| 8 | Eagles (3) | 11 | 87 | 88 | 87 |
| 9 | Jaguars (3) | 13 | 86 | 92 | 79 |
| 10 | Steelers (4) | 10 | 84 | 87 | 82 |
| 11 | Ravens | 8 | 84 | 80 | 88 |
| 12 | Lions | 9 | 84 | 84 | 83 |
| 13 | Panthers (4) | 8 | 83 | 84 | 82 |
| 14 | Vikings | 9 | 83 | 84 | 82 |
| 15 | 49ers (6) | 12 | 83 | 90 | 76 |
| 16 | Colts | 8 | 83 | 79 | 86 |
| 17 | Packers (7) | 9 | 82 | 83 | 81 |
| 18 | Bengals | 6 | 81 | 77 | 86 |
| 19 | Cowboys | 7 | 81 | 81 | 81 |
| 20 | Texans (5) | 12 | 81 | 94 | 68 |
| 21 | Chiefs | 6 | 81 | 71 | 90 |
| 22 | Buccaneers | 8 | 80 | 83 | 77 |
| 23 | Dolphins | 7 | 78 | 81 | 74 |
| 24 | Falcons | 8 | 77 | 83 | 72 |
| 25 | Browns | 5 | 75 | 74 | 75 |
| 26 | FB Team | 5 | 74 | 75 | 72 |
| 27 | Saints | 6 | 73 | 77 | 70 |
| 28 | Cardinals | 3 | 71 | 65 | 77 |
| 29 | Giants | 4 | 71 | 69 | 73 |
| 30 | Titans | 3 | 71 | 70 | 71 |
| 31 | Jets | 3 | 68 | 71 | 65 |
| 32 | Raiders | 3 | 65 | 71 | 58 |
| Team | ego | O/U | Line | Pace | Result | RROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 8.1 | Under | 10.5 | 12 | 0 | -100% |
| Jaguars | 5.3 | Under | 7.5 | 13 | 0 | -100% |
| Colts | 8.5 | Over | 6.5 | 8 | 16.9 | -43.67% |
| Vikings | 10.4 | Over | 8.5 | 9 | 17.69 | -13.53% |
| Falcons | 9.3 | Over | 7.5 | 8 | 17.14 | 3.46% |
| Bears | 9.3 | Over | 7.5 | 11 | 18 | 16.22% |
| Cowboys | 5.7 | Under | 7.5 | 7 | 21 | 29.61% |
| Jets | 4.8 | Under | 6.5 | 3 | 17.14 | 34.84% |
| Patriots | 7.0 | Under | 8.5 | 14 | 0 | 19.86% |
| Steelers | 9.7 | Over | 8.5 | 10 | 20.5 | 28.37% |
| Cardinals | 8.3 | Under | 9.5 | 3 | 16.67 | 31.85% |
| Chargers | 9.7 | Over | 8.5 | 11 | 16.9 | 34.95% |
| Chiefs | 11.6 | Over | 10.5 | 6 | 0 | 24.57% |
| Lions | 10.6 | Over | 9.5 | 9 | 0 | 15.67% |
| Seahawks | 8.5 | Over | 7.5 | 14 | 17.14 | 19.39% |
| Eagles | 12.4 | Over | 11.5 | 11 | 0 | 11.93% |
| FB Team | 10.4 | Over | 9.5 | 5 | 0 | 5.34% |
| Packers | 9.7 | Under | 10.5 | 9 | 17.69 | 9.32% |
| Dolphins | 7.7 | Under | 8.5 | 7 | 15.56 | 11.75% |
| Broncos | 10.2 | Over | 9.5 | 14 | 20 | 16.17% |
| Rams | 10.2 | Over | 9.5 | 12 | 18 | 19.20% |
| Texans | 9.1 | Over | 8.5 | 12 | 16.67 | 21.36% |
| Buccaneers | 9.1 | Over | 8.5 | 8 | 0 | 16.09% |
| Giants | 6.1 | Over | 5.5 | 4 | 0 | 11.25% |
| Titans | 5.0 | Under | 5.5 | 2 | 22.5 | 15.80% |
| Bills | 12.0 | Over | 11.5 | 12 | 16.45 | 17.67% |
| Panthers | 7.0 | Over | 6.5 | 8 | 18 | 19.98% |
| Ravens | 12.0 | Over | 11.5 | 8 | 0 | 15.70% |
| Browns | 4.2 | Under | 4.5 | 5 | 0 | 11.71% |
| Bengals | 9.3 | Under | 9.5 | 6 | 20 | 14.65% |
| Raiders | 6.4 | Under | 6.5 | 3 | 22 | 18.05% |
| Saints | 4.4 | Under | 4.5 | 6 | 0 | 14.36% |
Comparisons
| Prediction | Median Error | AVG Error | All 32 ROI | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESPNBet | 1.50 | 2.38 | Sportsbook | |
| Fanduel | 1.50 | 2.41 | Sportsbook | |
| BetMGM | 1.50 | 2.49 | Sportsbook | |
| Draftkings | 1.50 | 2.47 | Sportsbook | |
| ego | 1.75 | 2.60 | 14.36% | Projection |
| PFF (Phillips) | 1.90 | 2.46 | 13.75% | Projection |
| The Athletic (Mock) | 2.05 | 2.51 | -8.85% | Projection |
| NFL (Frelund) | 2.35 | 2.55 | -1.52% | Projection |
| ESPN (Clay) | 2.40 | 2.54 | 22.70% | Projection |
| CBS Sports (Sportsline) | 2.70 | 2.73 | -10.22% | Projection |
| The Athletic (Tafur) | – | – | -0.45% | Projection |
| CBS Sports (Staff) | – | – | -6.13% | Projection |
*Reminder that the primary goal of this project is not about generating the highest ROI or the lowest error in terms of the Win Total prediction. The goal is to accurately portray what should happen given the economic environment of the league and conditions of the organizations within, not what I think will actually happen.*
For Projections that did not come with lines/odds for the predictions, the same lines/odds options that were available for ego were used.
Top 10 Most Efficient Players
| Player | Organization | Position | AV/CAP% | AV | CAP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puca Nacua | Rams | Wide Receiver | 46.15 | 18 | 0.39% |
| Jalen Redmond | Vikings | Defensive Line | 28.57 | 10 | 0.35% |
| Devon Achane | Dolphins | Running Back | 26.42 | 14 | 0.53% |
| Parker Washington | Jaguars | Wide Receiver | 25.64 | 10 | 0.39% |
| Chase Brown | Bengals | Running Back | 25.00 | 10 | 0.40% |
| Drake Thomas | Seahawks | Linebacker | 24.32 | 9 | 0.37% |
| Omar Speights | Rams | Linebacker | 22.86 | 8 | 0.35% |
| Nathan Landman | Rams | Linebacker | 22.73 | 10 | 0.44% |
| Michael Carter | Cardinals | Running Back | 22.22 | 4 | 0.18% |
| Byron Young | Rams | Linebacker | 21.82 | 12 | 0.55% |
AV from ProFootballReference / CAP% from Sportrac / Min. AV of 3