2024 Homepage – ego Analytics

2024 Actual Through Week 18

ORG Rnk
Team (Seed)
Wins
ORG
Coach
GM


            1
            Chiefs (1)
            15
            97
            97
            97
        

            2
            Lions (1)
            15
            93
            95
            90
        

            3
            Vikings (5)
            14
            92
            94
            90
        

            4
            Ravens (3)
            12
            91
            88
            94
        

            5
            Eagles (2)
            14
            90
            92
            88
        

            6
            Chargers (5)
            11
            88
            86
            90
        

            7
            Packers (7)
            11
            88
            85
            90
        

            8
            Steelers (6)
            10
            87
            87
            88
        

            9
            Rams (4)
            10
            87
            87
            88
        

            10
            Bills (2)
            13
            86
            90
            81
        

            11
            Bengals
            9
            86
            82
            89
        

            12
            FB Team (6)
            12
            85
            91
            80
        

            13
            Buccaneers (3)
            10
            83
            81
            85
        

            14
            Texans (4)
            10
            81
            88
            73
        

            15
            Cardinals
            8
            80
            80
            80
        

            16
            Broncos (7)
            10
            80
            82
            78
        

            17
            Cowboys
            7
            80
            81
            78
        

            18
            Seahawks
            10
            79
            88
            71
        

            19
            Falcons
            8
            79
            84
            74
        

            20
            Colts
            8
            79
            86
            72
        

            21
            Dolphins
            8
            78
            82
            75
        

            22
            Bears
            5
            78
            72
            83
        

            23
            Saints
            5
            75
            72
            78
        

            24
            Jets
            5
            72
            74
            71
        

            25
            49ers
            6
            72
            75
            69
        

            26
            Panthers
            5
            70
            80
            61
        

            27
            Jaguars
            4
            69
            70
            69
        

            28
            Titans
            3
            69
            66
            72
        

            29
            Raiders
            4
            68
            75
            62
        

            30
            Browns
            3
            68
            69
            67
        

            31
            Patriots
            4
            67
            71
            63
        

            32
            Giants
            3
            67
            65
            69
        

ORG Rnk	Team (Seed)	Wins	ORG	Coach	GM
1	Chiefs (1)	15	97	97	97
2	Lions (1)	15	93	95	90
3	Vikings (5)	14	92	94	90
4	Ravens (3)	12	91	88	94
5	Eagles (2)	14	90	92	88
6	Chargers (5)	11	88	86	90
7	Packers (7)	11	88	85	90
8	Steelers (6)	10	87	87	88
9	Rams (4)	10	87	87	88
10	Bills (2)	13	86	90	81
11	Bengals	9	86	82	89
12	FB Team (6)	12	85	91	80
13	Buccaneers (3)	10	83	81	85
14	Texans (4)	10	81	88	73
15	Cardinals	8	80	80	80
16	Broncos (7)	10	80	82	78
17	Cowboys	7	80	81	78
18	Seahawks	10	79	88	71
19	Falcons	8	79	84	74
20	Colts	8	79	86	72
21	Dolphins	8	78	82	75
22	Bears	5	78	72	83
23	Saints	5	75	72	78
24	Jets	5	72	74	71
25	49ers	6	72	75	69
26	Panthers	5	70	80	61
27	Jaguars	4	69	70	69
28	Titans	3	69	66	72
29	Raiders	4	68	75	62
30	Browns	3	68	69	67
31	Patriots	4	67	71	63
32	Giants	3	67	65	69

_ of the Year

Retired

Fired Midseason

Fired

2024 Win Total Futures Through Week 18

Team	ego	O/U	Line	Pace	Result	RROI
Chargers	5.40	Under	8.5	11	0	-100%
Steelers	10.43	Over	7.5	10	21.5	7.50%
Dolphins	11.59	Over	9.5	8	0	-28.33%
Bears	10.43	Over	8.5	5	0	-46.25%
FB Team	4.63	Under	6.5	12	0	-57.00%
Broncos	4.24	Under	6	10	0	-64.17%
Cowboys	11.20	Over	9.5	7	0	-69.29%
Vikings	6.18	Under	7.5	14	0	-73.13%
Panthers	4.24	Under	5.5	5	21	-52.78%
Bills	9.27	Under	10.5	13	0	-57.50%
Browns	9.66	Over	8.5	3	0	-61.36%
Ravens	11.59	Over	10.5	12	20	-47.92%
Chiefs	12.36	Over	11.5	15	19.09	-37.24%
Bengals	9.66	Under	10.5	9	20.5	-27.08%
Jets	9.66	Under	10.5	5	16.9	-20.67%
Cardinals	7.34	Over	6.5	8	16.67	-15.21%
Patriots	3.86	Under	4.5	4	21	-7.85%
Saints	8.11	Over	7.5	5	0	-12.97%
Buccaneers	8.11	Over	7.5	10	17.58	-8.29%
Texans	10.04	Over	9.5	10	17.14	-4.31%
Falcons	10.04	Over	9.5	8	0	-8.87%
Colts	8.11	Under	8.5	8	18.7	-4.51%
Rams	8.88	Over	8.5	10	16.25	-1.60%
Jaguars	8.88	Over	8.5	4	0	-5.70%
Titans	6.18	Under	6.5	3	17.81	-2.34%
Giants	6.18	Under	6.5	3	18	0.82%
Raiders	6.18	Under	6.5	4	22	5.24%
Eagles	10.82	Over	10.5	14	17.69	7.80%
Lions	10.82	Over	10.5	15	17.69	10.18%
Seahawks	7.34	Under	7.5	10	0	6.51%
Packers	9.66	Over	9.5	11	17.41	8.69%
49ers	11.59	Over	11.5	6	0	5.29%

Comparisons

Prediction
Median Error
AVG Error
All 32 ROI
Type


            NFL (Freelund)
            2.30
            2.67
            27.47%
            Projection
        

            CBS Sports (Brinson)
            2.50
            2.59
            41.08%
            Projection
        

            Caesars
            2.50
            2.78
            
            Sportsbook
        

            Fanduel
            2.50
            2.84
            
            Sportsbook
        

            bet365
            2.50
            2.91
            
            Sportsbook
        

            BetMGM
            2.50
            2.94
            
            Sportsbook
        

            Draftkings
            2.50
            2.94
            
            Sportsbook
        

            PFF
            2.78
            2.90
            -11.34%
            Projection
        

            ESPN (Clay)
            2.85
            3.29
            -44.90%
            Projection
        

            The Athletic (Staff)
            3.05
            3.00
            -23.13%
            Projection
        

            ego
            3.14
            3.10
            5.29%
            Projection
        

            The Athletic (Tafur)
            –
            –
            -13.50%
            Projection
        

Prediction	Median Error	AVG Error	All 32 ROI	Type
NFL (Freelund)	2.30	2.67	27.47%	Projection
CBS Sports (Brinson)	2.50	2.59	41.08%	Projection
Caesars	2.50	2.78		Sportsbook
Fanduel	2.50	2.84		Sportsbook
bet365	2.50	2.91		Sportsbook
BetMGM	2.50	2.94		Sportsbook
Draftkings	2.50	2.94		Sportsbook
PFF	2.78	2.90	-11.34%	Projection
ESPN (Clay)	2.85	3.29	-44.90%	Projection
The Athletic (Staff)	3.05	3.00	-23.13%	Projection
ego	3.14	3.10	5.29%	Projection
The Athletic (Tafur)	–	–	-13.50%	Projection

*Reminder that the primary goal of this project is not about generating the highest ROI or the lowest error in terms of the win total prediction. The goal is to accurately portray what should happen given the economic environment of the league and conditions of the organizations within, not what I think will actually happen.*

For Projections that did not come with lines/odds for the predictions, the same lines/odds options that were available for ego were used.

Top 10 Most Efficient Players

Player
Organization
Position
AV/CAP%
AV
CAP%


            Brock Purdy
            49ers
            Quarterback
            33.33
            13
            0.39%
        

            Bucky Irving
            Buccaneers
            Running Back
            31.58
            12
            0.38%
        

            Kaevon Merriweather
            Buccaneers
            Safety
            30.00
            3
            0.10%
        

            Zach Baun
            Eagles
            Linebacker
            28.57
            18
            0.63%
        

            Kerby Joseph
            Lions
            Safety
            25.93
            14
            0.54%
        

            Nik Bonitto
            Broncos
            Linebacker
            25.81
            16
            0.64%
        

            Rasheed Walker
            Packers
            Offensive Tackle
            25.64
            10
            0.39%
        

            Chase Brown
            Bengals
            Running Back
            25.64
            10
            0.39%
        

            Khalil Shakir
            Bills
            Wide Receiver
            23.81
            10
            0.42%
        

            Puka Nacua
            Rams
            Wide Receiver
            23.68
            9
            0.38%
        

Player	Organization	Position	AV/CAP%	AV	CAP%
Brock Purdy	49ers	Quarterback	33.33	13	0.39%
Bucky Irving	Buccaneers	Running Back	31.58	12	0.38%
Kaevon Merriweather	Buccaneers	Safety	30.00	3	0.10%
Zach Baun	Eagles	Linebacker	28.57	18	0.63%
Kerby Joseph	Lions	Safety	25.93	14	0.54%
Nik Bonitto	Broncos	Linebacker	25.81	16	0.64%
Rasheed Walker	Packers	Offensive Tackle	25.64	10	0.39%
Chase Brown	Bengals	Running Back	25.64	10	0.39%
Khalil Shakir	Bills	Wide Receiver	23.81	10	0.42%
Puka Nacua	Rams	Wide Receiver	23.68	9	0.38%

AV from ProFootballReference / CAP% from Sportrac / Min. AV of 3