| ORG Rnk | Team (Playoff Seed) | Wins | ORG | Coach | GM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys (2) | 12 | 93 | 87 | 100 |
| 2 | Ravens (1) | 13 | 91 | 90 | 92 |
| 3 | Bills (2) | 11 | 89 | 86 | 91 |
| 4 | Lions (3) | 12 | 89 | 89 | 88 |
| 5 | Chiefs (3) | 11 | 88 | 87 | 89 |
| 6 | Bengals | 9 | 87 | 84 | 91 |
| 7 | 49ers (1) | 12 | 87 | 86 | 88 |
| 8 | Dolphins (6) | 11 | 87 | 87 | 87 |
| 9 | Steelers (7) | 10 | 87 | 89 | 85 |
| 10 | Rams (6) | 10 | 84 | 85 | 84 |
| 11 | Saints | 9 | 84 | 81 | 87 |
| 12 | Broncos | 8 | 84 | 83 | 84 |
| 13 | Buccaneers (4) | 9 | 84 | 82 | 85 |
| 14 | Jaguars | 9 | 83 | 84 | 82 |
| 15 | Browns (5) | 11 | 83 | 89 | 77 |
| 16 | Eagles (5) | 11 | 82 | 90 | 75 |
| 17 | Texans (4) | 10 | 82 | 87 | 76 |
| 18 | Packers (7) | 9 | 81 | 83 | 79 |
| 19 | Seahawks | 9 | 81 | 86 | 76 |
| 20 | Bears | 7 | 80 | 78 | 82 |
| 21 | Vikings | 7 | 79 | 79 | 79 |
| 22 | Falcons | 7 | 79 | 80 | 78 |
| 23 | Jets | 7 | 78 | 81 | 76 |
| 24 | Colts | 9 | 78 | 86 | 70 |
| 25 | Titans | 6 | 77 | 77 | 77 |
| 26 | Raiders | 8 | 77 | 82 | 71 |
| 27 | Chargers | 5 | 74 | 72 | 76 |
| 28 | Patriots | 4 | 74 | 71 | 77 |
| 29 | Giants | 6 | 72 | 81 | 63 |
| 30 | Cardinals | 4 | 71 | 71 | 71 |
| 31 | FB Team | 4 | 69 | 75 | 63 |
| 32 | Panthers | 2 | 66 | 63 | 69 |
_ of the Year
Retired
Fired Midseason
Fired
| Team | ego | O/U | Line | Pace | Result | RROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB Team | 8.96 | Over | 6.5 | 4 | 0 | -100.00% |
| Buccaneers | 4.89 | Under | 6.5 | 9 | 0 | -100.00% |
| Steelers | 9.93 | Over | 8.5 | 10 | 16.67 | -44.43% |
| Vikings | 7.22 | Under | 8.5 | 7 | 20.4 | -7.33% |
| Colts | 5.28 | Under | 6.5 | 9 | 0 | -25.86 |
| Ravens | 10.70 | Over | 9.5 | 13 | 15.99 | -12.23% |
| 49ers | 11.67 | Over | 9.5 | 12 | 16.99 | -0.50% |
| Cardinals | 3.34 | Under | 4.5 | 4 | 17.04 | 8.36% |
| Browns | 8.38 | Under | 9.5 | 11 | 0 | -8.36% |
| Bengals | 11.57 | Over | 10.5 | 9 | 0 | -13.31% |
| Rams | 5.47 | Under | 6.5 | 10 | 0 | -21.29% |
| Bears | 6.54 | Under | 7.5 | 7 | 21 | -10.26% |
| Seahawks | 9.44 | Over | 8.5 | 9 | 17.04 | -4.05% |
| Patriots | 7.41 | Over | 6.5 | 4 | 0 | -10.91% |
| Panthers | 6.64 | Under | 7.5 | 2 | 18.33 | -4.63% |
| Texans | 5.67 | Under | 6.5 | 10 | 0 | -10.59% |
| Chargers | 10.32 | Over | 9.5 | 5 | 0 | -15.85% |
| Lions | 10.32 | Over | 9.5 | 12 | 18.47 | -10.26% |
| Eagles | 12.25 | Over | 11.5 | 11 | 0 | -14.98% |
| Packers | 6.83 | Under | 7.5 | 9 | 0 | -19.24% |
| Jaguars | 10.12 | Over | 9.5 | 9 | 0 | -23.08% |
| Broncos | 7.99 | Under | 8.5 | 8 | 18.77 | -18.05% |
| Giants | 7.99 | Over | 7.5 | 6 | 0 | -21.61% |
| Raiders | 6.05 | Under | 6.5 | 8 | 0 | -24.88% |
| Cowboys | 9.93 | Over | 9.5 | 12 | 16.17 | -21.41% |
| Titans | 7.22 | Under | 7.5 | 6 | 20.6 | -16.51% |
| Falcons | 8.77 | Over | 8.5 | 7 | 0 | -19.60% |
| Bills | 10.70 | Over | 10.5 | 11 | 17.14 | -16.35% |
| Chiefs | 11.67 | Over | 11.5 | 11 | 0 | -19.24% |
| Dolphins | 9.35 | Under | 9.5 | 11 | 0 | -21.93% |
| Jets | 9.54 | Over | 9.5 | 7 | 0 | -24.45% |
| Saints | 9.54 | Over | 9.5 | 9 | 0 | -26.81% |
Comparisons
| Prediction | Median Error | AVG Error | All 32 ROI | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 1.50 | 1.75 | Sportsbook | |
| BetRivers | 1.50 | 1.81 | Sportsbook | |
| Caesars | 1.50 | 1.88 | Sportsbook | |
| ESPN (Clay) | 1.65 | 1.92 | -3.48% | Projection |
| The Athletic | 1.70 | 1.93 | -13.00% | Projection |
| ego | 1.86 | 2.05 | -26.81% | |
| NFL (Frelund) | 1.90 | 2.09 | -37.40% | Projection |
| ProFootballNetwork | 2.00 | 1.94 | -4.16% | Projection |
| USAToday | 2.00 | 2.06 | 4.48% | Projection |
| CBS Sports (Breech) | 2.00 | 2.19 | -21.03% | Projection |
| CBS Sports (Brinson) | 2.00 | 2.25 | 4.23% | Projection |
*Reminder that the primary goal of this project is not about generating the highest ROI or the lowest error in terms of the win total prediction. The goal is to accurately portray what should happen given the economic environment of the league and conditions of the organizations within, not what I think will actually happen.*
For Projections that did not come with lines/odds for the predictions, the same lines/odds options that were available for ego were used.
Top 10 Most Efficient Players
| Player | Organization | Position | AV/CAP% | AV | CAP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 49ers | Quarterback | 48.65 | 18 | 0.37% |
| Puka Nacua | Rams | Wide Receiver | 38.88 | 14 | 0.37% |
| DaRon Bland | Cowboys | Cornerback | 31.71 | 13 | 0.41% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Lions | Wide Receiver | 30.00 | 15 | 0.50% |
| Sam Howell | FB Team | Quarterback | 26.19 | 11 | 0.42% |
| Rasheed Walker | Packers | Offensive Tackle | 25.64 | 10 | 0.39% |
| Kyren Williams | Rams | Running Back | 23.81 | 10 | 0.42% |
| James Cook | Bills | Running Back | 22.41 | 13 | 0.59% |
| Tommy DeVito | Giants | Quarterback | 22.22 | 4 | 0.18% |
| Terrel Bernard | Bills | Linebacker | 21.57 | 11 | 0.51% |
AV from ProFootballReference / CAP% from Sportrac / Min. AV of 3