2022 Homepage – ego Analytics

2022 Actual Through Week 18

ORG Rnk
Team (Playoff Seed)
Wins
ORG
Coach
GM


            1
            Chiefs (1)
            14
            97
            92
            103
        

            2
            Bills (2)
            13
            94
            92
            96
        

            3
            Eagles (1)
            14
            93
            93
            93
        

            4
            Bengals (3)
            12
            92
            90
            94
        

            5
            Vikings (3)
            13
            90
            95
            85
        

            6
            49ers (2)
            13
            90
            91
            88
        

            7
            Cowboys (4)
            12
            89
            90
            89
        

            8
            Chargers (5)
            10
            87
            87
            87
        

            9
            Ravens (6)
            10
            86
            86
            87
        

            10
            Lions
            9
            84
            83
            85
        

            11
            Patriots
            8
            83
            82
            84
        

            12
            Steelers
            9
            83
            85
            80
        

            13
            Jaguars (4)
            9
            82
            83
            82
        

            14
            Buccaneers (4)
            8
            82
            83
            81
        

            15
            Giants (6)
            9
            82
            86
            78
        

            16
            Titans
            7
            82
            80
            83
        

            17
            Dolphins (7)
            9
            81
            84                      78
        

            18
            Jets
            7
            81
            79
            83
        

            19
            Packers
            8
            81
            82
            80
        

            20
            FB Team
            8
            80
            83
            77
        

            21
            Saints
            7
            80
            79
            81
        

            22
            Browns
            7
            79
            78
            80
        

            23
            Rams
            7
            77
            75
            79
        

            24
            Panthers
            7
            77
            79
            75
        

            25
            Broncos
            5
            76
            73
            78
        

            26
            Raiders
            6
            75
            75
            75
        

            27
            Seahawks (7)
            9
            75
            83
            67
        

            28
            Falcons
            7
            75
            78
            71
        

            29
            Colts
            4
            73
            73
            73
        

            30
            Cardinals
            4
            72
            71
            72
        

            31
            Texans
            3
            67
            66
            69
        

            32
            Bears
            3
            66
            65
            68
        

ORG Rnk	Team (Playoff Seed)	Wins	ORG	Coach	GM
1	Chiefs (1)	14	97	92	103
2	Bills (2)	13	94	92	96
3	Eagles (1)	14	93	93	93
4	Bengals (3)	12	92	90	94
5	Vikings (3)	13	90	95	85
6	49ers (2)	13	90	91	88
7	Cowboys (4)	12	89	90	89
8	Chargers (5)	10	87	87	87
9	Ravens (6)	10	86	86	87
10	Lions	9	84	83	85
11	Patriots	8	83	82	84
12	Steelers	9	83	85	80
13	Jaguars (4)	9	82	83	82
14	Buccaneers (4)	8	82	83	81
15	Giants (6)	9	82	86	78
16	Titans	7	82	80	83
17	Dolphins (7)	9	81	84	78
18	Jets	7	81	79	83
19	Packers	8	81	82	80
20	FB Team	8	80	83	77
21	Saints	7	80	79	81
22	Browns	7	79	78	80
23	Rams	7	77	75	79
24	Panthers	7	77	79	75
25	Broncos	5	76	73	78
26	Raiders	6	75	75	75
27	Seahawks (7)	9	75	83	67
28	Falcons	7	75	78	71
29	Colts	4	73	73	73
30	Cardinals	4	72	71	72
31	Texans	3	67	66	69
32	Bears	3	66	65	68

_ of the Year

Retired

Fired Midseason

Fired

2022 Win Total Futures Through Week 18

Team	ego	O/U	Line	Wins	Result	RROI
Giants	5.08	Under	7.5	9	0	-100%
Seahawks	3.65	Under	6.5	9	0	-100%
Jaguars	4.17	Under	6.5	9	0	-100%
Saints	10.79	Over	8.5	7	0	-100%
Steelers	9.25	Over	7.5	9	19.52	-60.96%
FB Team	9.01	Over	7.5	8	18	-37.47%
Cardinals	9.97	Over	8.5	4	0	-46.40%
Chargers	11.43	Over	10	10	10	-40.60%
Bengals	10.80	Over	9.5	12	18	-27.20%
Ravens	9.33	Under	10.5	10	18.33	-16.15%
Falcons	3.86	Under	5	7	0	-23.77%
Bears	4.86	Under	6	3	18.7	-14.54%
Raiders	7.37	Under	8.5	6	21	-4.96%
49ers	9.42	Under	10.5	13	0	-11.75%
Browns	7.43	Under	8.5	7	16.45	-6.67%
Eagles	10.55	Over	9.5	14	17.69	-1.44%
Patriots	9.54	Over	8.5	8	0	-7.24%
Titans	9.48	Over	8.5	7	0	-12.39%
Buccaneers	10.55	Under	11.5	8	17.41	-7.84%
Cowboys	10.37	Over	9.5	12	16.67	-4.12%
Texans	3.65	Under	4.5	3	20	0.84%
Packers	10.68	Under	11.5	8	17.14	4.05%
Chiefs	11.27	Over	10.5	14	18.7	7.66%
Colts	10.26	Over	9.5	4	0	3.17%
Vikings	8.76	Under	9.5	13	0	-0.96%
Dolphins	9.23	Over	8.5	9	17.69	2.04%
Rams	11.10	Over	10.5	5	0	-1.74%
Lions	6.98	Over	6.5	9	18	1.18%
Jets	5.08	Under	5.5	7	0	-2.31%
Broncos	9.63	Under	10	5	18.7	0.67%
Bills	11.85	Over	11.5	13	17.41	3.04%
Panthers	6.51	Over	6.5	7	20.5	6.22%

Comparisons

Prediction
Median Error
AVG Error
All 32 ROI
Type


            538
            2.00
            2.22
            28.07%
            Projection
        

            CBS Sports (Breech)
            2.00
            2.38
            10.09%
            Projection
        

            Draftkings
            2.16
            2.41
            
            Sportsbook
        

            Oddsshark
            2.25
            2.42
            
            Sportsbook
        

            ego
            2.25
            2.61
            6.22%
             
        

            The Atlantic
            2.35
            2.38
            7.98%
            Projection
        

            NFL (Frelund)
            2.45
            2.43
            3.74%
            Projection
        

            Fanduel
            2.50
            2.44
            
            Sportsbook
        

            Caesars
            2.50
            2.45
            
            Sportsbook
        

            BetMGM
            2.50
            2.55
            
            Sportsbook
        

            UNIBET
            2.50
            2.69
            
            Sportsbook
        

Prediction	Median Error	AVG Error	All 32 ROI	Type
538	2.00	2.22	28.07%	Projection
CBS Sports (Breech)	2.00	2.38	10.09%	Projection
Draftkings	2.16	2.41		Sportsbook
Oddsshark	2.25	2.42		Sportsbook
ego	2.25	2.61	6.22%
The Atlantic	2.35	2.38	7.98%	Projection
NFL (Frelund)	2.45	2.43	3.74%	Projection
Fanduel	2.50	2.44		Sportsbook
Caesars	2.50	2.45		Sportsbook
BetMGM	2.50	2.55		Sportsbook
UNIBET	2.50	2.69		Sportsbook

*Reminder that the primary goal of this project is not about generating the highest ROI or the lowest error in terms of the win total prediction. The goal is to accurately portray what should happen given the economic environment of the league and conditions of the organizations within, not what I think will actually happen.*

For Projections that did not come with lines/odds for the predictions, the same lines/odds options that were available for ego were used.

Top 10 Most Efficient Players

Player
Organization
Position
AV/CAP%
AV
CAP%


            Roquan Smith*
            Ravens
            Linebacker
            46.43
            13
            0.28%
        

            Christian McCaffrey*
            49ers
            Running Back
            31.25
            10
            0.32%
        

            Tariq Woolen
            Seahawks
            Cornerback
            27.78
            10
            0.36%
        

            Amon-Ra St. Brown
            Lions
            Wide Receiver
            27.66
            13
            0.47%
        

            Jalen Hurts
            Eagles
            Quarterback
            27.40
            20
            0.73%
        

            Talanoa Hufanga
            49ers
            Safety
            23.81
            10
            0.42%
        

            Cameron Dicker
            Chargers
            Kicker
            23.08
            3
            0.13%
        

            Marcus Jones
            Patriots
            Cornerback
            22.22
            10
            0.45%
        

            Cordell Volson
            Bengals
            Guard
            21.95
            9
            0.41%
        

            Braxton Jones
            Bears
            Offensive Tackle
            21.62
            8
            0.37%
        

Player	Organization	Position	AV/CAP%	AV	CAP%
Roquan Smith*	Ravens	Linebacker	46.43	13	0.28%
Christian McCaffrey*	49ers	Running Back	31.25	10	0.32%
Tariq Woolen	Seahawks	Cornerback	27.78	10	0.36%
Amon-Ra St. Brown	Lions	Wide Receiver	27.66	13	0.47%
Jalen Hurts	Eagles	Quarterback	27.40	20	0.73%
Talanoa Hufanga	49ers	Safety	23.81	10	0.42%
Cameron Dicker	Chargers	Kicker	23.08	3	0.13%
Marcus Jones	Patriots	Cornerback	22.22	10	0.45%
Cordell Volson	Bengals	Guard	21.95	9	0.41%
Braxton Jones	Bears	Offensive Tackle	21.62	8	0.37%

AV from ProFootballReference / CAP% from Sportrac / Min. AV of 3

*The data for Smith and McCaffrey is only for the Ravens and 49ers, respectively.