ego Analytics

ORG Rnk Team (Playoff Seed) Wins ORG Coach GM
1 Chiefs (2) 12 94 88 99
2 Bills (3) 11 93 83 103
3 Packers (1) 13 90 92 89
4 Cardinals (5) 11 89 86 92
5 Chargers 9 88 83 94
6 Patriots (6) 10 88 84 93
7 Cowboys (3) 12 88 89 87
8 Titans (1) 12 87 90 84
9 Buccaneers (2) 13 87 93 80
10 49ers (6) 10 86 85 87
11 Rams (4) 12 86 89 83
12 Bengals (4) 10 86 85 87
13 Colts 9 84 82 87
14 Steelers (7) 9 84 87 81
15 Saints 9 84 82 85
16 FB Team 7 84 81 86
17 Falcons 7 83 84 83
18 Raiders (5) 10 83 89 78
19 Browns 8 83 82 85
20 Eagles (7) 9 83 82 83
21 Vikings 8 83 81 84
22 Dolphins 9 82 85 79
23 Seahawks 7 79 78 79
24 Ravens 8 77 83 70
25 Bears 6 77 80 73
26 Broncos 7 74 78 70
27 Jets 4 74 76 73
28 Panthers 5 73 74 73
29 Giants 4 72 74 70
30 Jaguars 3 70 71 69
31 Lions 3 70 69 71
32 Texans 4 66 75 58

_ of the Year

Retired

Fired Midseason

Fired

Team ego O/U Line Wins Result RROI
Jaguars 3.05 Under 6.5 3 20.4 104.00%
Bills 13.48 Over 10.5 11 17.69 90.45%
Broncos 5.80 Under 8.5 7 20.5 95.30%
Packers 12.78 Over 10.5 13 20.2 96.98%
49ers 8.32 Under 10.5 10 21 99.58%
Seahawks 11.67 Over 9.5 7 0 66.32%
Falcons 5.34 Under 7.5 7 19.52 70.44%
Titans 11.61 Over 9.5 12 21 75.39%
Raiders 9.10 Over 7 10 18.7 62.46%
Eagles 5.02 Under 7 9 0 55.90%
Panthers 5.57 Under 7.5 5 18.70 59.01%
Chiefs 13.89 Over 12 12 10 53.65%
Saints 7.65 Under 9.5 9 17.14 55.13%
Buccaneers 13.22 Over 11.5 13 20 58.58%
FB Team 6.79 Under 8.5 7 18.33 60.34%
Jets 4.83 Under 6.5 4 16.76 60.83%
Steelers 10.05 Over 8.5 9 21 65.26%
Cowboys 8.00 Under 9.5 12 0 56.08%
Bengals 5.03 Under 6.5 10 0 47.86%
Colts 11.39 Over 10 9 0 40.47%
Chargers 7.71 Under 9 9 10 38.54%
Browns 11.20 Over 10 8 0 32.25%
Vikings 7.90 Under 9 8 18.77 34.66%
Ravens 10.49 Under 11.5 8 16.25 35.82%
Lions 5.77 Over 5 3 0 30.38%
Dolphins 9.73 Over 9 9 10 29.22%
Rams 10.02 Under 10.5 12 0 24.43%
Texans 4.88 Over 4.5 4 0 19.99%
Cardinals 8.21 Under 8.5 11 0 15.85%
Bears 7.26 Under 7.5 6 18.33 18.10%
Patriots 9.16 Over 9 10 18 20.09%
Giants 7.07 Over 7 4 0 16.34%

Comparisons
Prediction Median Error AVG Error All 32 ROI Type
CBS Sports (Breech) 1.00 1.47 54.37% Projection
Sports Illustrated 1.00 2.09 20.92% Projection
ego 1.32 1.75 16.34%
William Hill 1.50 1.52 Sportsbook
Barstool 1.50 1.68 Sportsbook
BetMGM 1.50 1.68 Sportsbook
BetUS 1.50 1.70 Sportsbook
NFL (Frelund) 1.60 1.65 12.91% Projection
Oddsshark 1.75 1.70 Sportsbook
538 2.00 1.53 30.95% Projection
USA Today 2.00 1.91 25.15% Projection
*Reminder that the primary goal of this project is not about generating the highest ROI or the lowest error in terms of the win total prediction. The goal is to accurately portray what should happen given the economic environment of the league and conditions of the organizations within, not what I think will actually happen.*
For Projections that did not come with lines/odds for the predictions, the same lines/odds options that were available for ego were used.
Top 10 Most Efficient Players
Player Organization Position AV/CAP% AV CAP%
Trey Smith Chiefs Guard 27.03 10 0.37%
Jalen Hurts Eagles Quarterback 25.76 17 0.66%
Maxx Crosby Raiders Defensive End 23.64 13 0.55%
Trevor Diggs Cowboys Cornerback 22.06 15 0.68%
Jakobi Meyers Patriots Wide Receiver 21.95 9 0.41%
De’Vondre Campbell Packers Linebacker 21.88 14 0.43%
Tae Crowder Panthers Linebacker 20.93 9 0.43%
Jeremy Chinn Panthers Safety 20.31 13 0.64%
Darnell Mooney Bears Wide Receiver 20.00 9 0.45%
David Quessenberry Titans Offensive Lineman 20.00 9 0.45%
AV from ProFootballReference / CAP% from Sportrac / Min. AV of 3