ego Analytics

ORG Rnk Team (Playoff Seed) Wins ORG Coach GM
1 Packers (1) 13 99 91 107
2 Chiefs (1) 14 97 96 98
3 Bills (2) 13 95 93 97
4 Steelers (3) 12 93 92 95
5 Buccaneers (5) 11 92 87 97
6 Seahawks (3) 12 92 92 93
7 Colts (7) 11 92 89 95
8 Saints (2) 12 89 90 88
9 Browns (6) 11 89 91 87
10 Titans (4) 11 88 91 86
11 Rams (6) 10 87 86 89
12 Raiders 8 86 84 88
13 Bears (7) 8 84 84 85
14 Dolphins 10 83 86 80
15 Cardinals 8 82 83 82
16 Ravens (5) 11 82 88 77
17 Chargers 7 81 81 82
18 Patriots 7 80 80 80
19 Vikings 7 80 83 77
20 FB Team (4) 7 78 80 77
21 Giants 6 78 80 75
22 Falcons 4 77 68 87
23 Lions 5 77 79 75
24 Panthers 5 75 74 77
25 49ers 6 75 78 72
26 Broncos 5 75 77 72
27 Texans 4 75 70 79
28 Cowboys 6 74 81 68
29 Eagles 4 74 72 76
30 Bengals 4 71 74 67
31 Jets 2 66 65 67
32 Jaguars 1 53 40 66

_ of the Year

Retired

Fired Midseason

Fired

Team ego O/U Line Wins Result RROI
Chargers 5.46 Under 8 7 19.09 90.91%
Rams 6.17 Under 8.5 10 0 -4.55%
Packers 11.22 Over 9 13 21.5 35.30%
Lions 4.33 Under 6.5 5 21.5 55.23%
Bengals 3.58 Under 5.5 4 21.5 67.18%
Browns 6.72 Under 8.5 11 0 39.32%
Buccaneers 10.69 Over 9 11 17.19 43.97%
Panthers 4.03 Under 5.5 5 21 52.23%
Eagles 8.04 Under 9.5 4 18.7 56.09%
Ravens 11.75 Over 10.5 11 18.33 58.81%
Raiders 8.62 Over 7.5 8 19.52 62.12%
Cardinals 7.62 Over 6.5 8 16.45 62.32%
Bills 9.45 Over 8.5 13 17.52 63.31%
Vikings 9.40 Over 8.5 7 0 51.64%
FB Team 4.60 Under 5.5 7 0 41.53%
Seahawks 10.35 Over 9.5 12 22.5 46.75%
Bears 8.82 Over 8 8 10 44.00%
Steelers 9.82 Over 9 12 18.7 46.39%
Jaguars 4.71 Under 5.5 1 18.33 48.33%
49ers 11.24 Over 10.5 6 0 40.91%
Texans 8.19 Over 7.5 4 0 34.20%
Giants 5.86 Under 6.5 6 19.09 36.78%
Titans 9.05 Over 8.5 11 21 39.96%
Dolphins 6.00 Over 5.5 10 18.33 41.77%
Colts 8.00 Under 8.5 11 0 36.10%
Cowboys 9.04 Under 9.5 6 23.5 39.90%
Patriots 9.13 Under 9.5 7 18.33 41.51%
Chiefs 11.72 Over 11.5 14 19.09 43.27%
Saints 10.71 Over 10.5 12 20 45.23%
Broncos 7.39 Under 7.5 5 21.5 47.56%
Falcons 7.57 Over 7.5 4 0 42.80%
Jets 6.49 Under 6.5 2 21 44.90%

Comparisons
Prediction Median Error AVG Error All 32 ROI Type
CBS Sports (Breech) 2.00 2.22 28.83% Projection
538 2.00 2.34 8.35% Projection
NFL (Frelund) 2.05 2.28 2.22% Projection
TeamRankings 2.20 2.42 2.51% Projection
ego 2.23 2.31 44.90%
Action Network 2.24 2.49 -12.27% Projection
Oddsshark 2.25 2.31 Sportsbook
ESPN FPI 2.40 2.43 -4.12% Projection
BetMGM 2.50 1.94 Sportsbook
William Hill 2.50 2.38 Sportsbook
FOXBet 2.50 2.44 Sportsbook
*Reminder that the primary goal of this project is not about generating the highest ROI or the lowest error in terms of the win total prediction. The goal is to accurately portray what should happen given the economic environment of the league and conditions of the organizations within, not what I think will actually happen.*
For Projections that did not come with lines/odds for the predictions, the same lines/odds options that were available for ego were used.
Top 10 Most Efficient Players
Player Organization Position AV/CAP% AV CAP%
Fred Warner 49ers Linebacker 35.85 19 0.53%
Jeremy Chinn Panthers Safety 30.43 14 0.46%
Terrence Steele Cowboys Offensive Tackle 28.57 8 0.28%
James Robinson Jaguars Running Back 27.59 8 0.29%
Sebastian Joseph Rams Defensive Tackle 25.64 10 0.39%
D.K. Metcalf Seattle Wide Receiver 25.00 13 0.52%
Orlando Brown Jr. Ravens Offensive Tackle 24.49 12 0.49%
Wyatt Teller Browns Guard 24.24 8 0.33%
Myles Gaskin Dolphins Running Back 24.14 7 0.29%
Andrew Wylie Chiefs Guard 23.53 8 0.34%
AV from ProFootballReference / CAP% from Sportrac / Min. AV of 3