This website is for a project called “ego Analytics” (evenly gifted organizations). It is based on the idea that theoretically every NFL organization originally started with the same general resources, like draft capital and cap space, and how these organizations have used those resources over time have determined their relative levels of success.

The leadership of an NFL organization can be broken down into two parts: the coaching staff (Head Coach and Offensive/Defensive Coordinators) and the front office (General Manager and other Executives). Their relationships to the players and each other defines the organization.

The name is additionally a reference to how many front office decisions are ego-based, such as holding out for a new contract. While most sports analytics models focus on a bottom-up approach, ego Analytics uses a top-down method, primarily evaluating the leadership of the NFL organization instead of the performance of the players. In other words, sports analytics typically focuses solely on what happens on the field, but ego Analytics includes what happens off the field. Just as players and coaches actions are dictated by on-the-field rules, these off-the-field actions by NFL front offices are guided by rules, and understanding these rules for, and the resulting actions of, front offices can help predict what should happen on the field.

This project is designed to do just that – to generate a set of metrics for coaching staffs, front offices, and the organizations overall. Using those metrics, one can generate predicted win totals for each team. Then one could bet Win Total Futures using those predictions. Due to a high level of aggregation and more level playing field between the sportsbooks and bettors, Win Total Futures are higher value bets.

The results in the table below are based on 1 unit bets on every bet. The table also includes IMP (Impact on the Model’s Performance), which summarizes the external conditions that affect the results of the model, and the variables that go into IMP (Stability, Power Utilization, and Upset Luck). The range of IMP is roughly 60-100, and the long term average should be around 82.

Menu Options

Specific Season Homepages: overview of the metrics for each NFL organization and the betting results

How It Works: overview of the project and the metrics that make up the economic model

Model Evaluation: describes various methods to evaluate the accuracy and effectiveness of the model

Organizational Scores: in-depth view of those metrics which includes the lower-level metrics upon which those higher-level metrics are generated

Organizational Graphs: visualizations of the Scores over time for each of the NFL organizations

Heat Check: a metric to estimate how likely a Head Coach or General Manager is to be fired

Gambling Performance: in-depth view of the Win Total Futures (Over/Under # of Wins) performances for each season

Miscellaneous Information: definitions, sources, and additional content using the metrics of this project

Legend for the Table Below

The green section shows the results of the model via Win Total Futures betting

The blue section shows the elements external to the model and their effects on the performance of the model

The purple section shows the return of the S&P500 during the 2nd half of the year (coinciding with the season)

The red section shows the return of the Nasdaq Composite during the 2nd half of the year (coinciding with the season)

The orange section shows the results of the “Top 20” bets for the model in each season

These bets are based on the 20 largest differences between ego prediction and Win Total line (see specific years)

This style of betting has its advantages and pitfalls in that they should be the highest value bets, but in bad years, the profit can be significantly lower due to risk consolidation

The yellow section shows the most equal comparison to the results of this project in the form of hedge fund performance (uses https://hedgefollow.com/top-hedge-funds.php) *Note: ranking only includes the 20 “Most Popular” funds*

The website above uses the Top 20 investments to rank hedge funds (to compare with Top 20 of this project)

These returns are not a 1:1 comparison, as they are over years and not individual 6 month periods